第 10 課 民調(diào)與管治藝術(shù)

丘吉爾曾說：“沒有比活在蓋洛普的民意調(diào)查以及反復(fù)無(wú)常的民意狂飆下更加危險(xiǎn)的事了，它可以?shī)Z走你的心跳及神智。”(Nothing is more dangerous...than to live in the temperamental atmosphere of a Gallup poll—always feeling one’s pulse and taking one’s temperature.)

美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)杜魯門也曾說：“如果當(dāng)年摩西在埃及進(jìn)行民意調(diào)查，那么他還是否會(huì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)猶太人出埃及？如果當(dāng)年耶穌基督在以色列進(jìn)行民意調(diào)查，他又會(huì)如何傳教呢？如果馬丁·路德當(dāng)年也進(jìn)行民意調(diào)查，那么是否還會(huì)有宗教改革運(yùn)動(dòng)呢？關(guān)鍵是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)正確與否，而非由一時(shí)的輿論及民調(diào)所決定。”(How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt? What would Jesus Christ have preached if he had taken a poll in the land of Israel? What would have happened to the Reformation if Martin Luther had taken a poll? It isn’t polls or public opinion of the moment that counts. It’s right and wrong and leadership.)

民意調(diào)查從來都是具爭(zhēng)議性的東西，有人對(duì)其趨之若鶩，亦有人對(duì)之不屑一顧。丘吉爾就完全看不起民意調(diào)查，但當(dāng)然我們都記得，結(jié)果如此一位戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)英雄，在大戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后，便意外地被國(guó)民以選票擯了下臺(tái)。

基辛格曾說：

“政治家的一項(xiàng)艱巨挑戰(zhàn)，便是如何在自己以及選民的視野兩者之間，取得一個(gè)交匯點(diǎn)。如果你較選民過于超前，太過高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚，便得不到選民的明白和諒解，被他們遺棄；但相反，如果你與選民同步，太過目光短淺，則追不上日新月異的局勢(shì)，早晚被時(shí)代所淘汰?！?A statesman’s job is to bridge the gap between his vision and his nation’s experience. If his vision gets too far out ahead of his country’s experience, he will lose his mandate. But if he hews too close to the conventional, he risks losing control over events.)