目錄 把科技自立自強(qiáng)作為國(guó)家發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略支撐 i 前言 xi 首字母縮略詞 xv 報(bào)告摘要 xxi 第一部分 探索邁向碳中和之路 第一章 新氣候目標(biāo)導(dǎo)向下的中長(zhǎng)期低碳轉(zhuǎn)型總體思路 3 一、新氣候目標(biāo)提出的背景 3 二、實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰與碳中和面臨的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn) 11 三、我國(guó)中長(zhǎng)期綠色低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的總體思路 17 第二章 構(gòu)建邁向碳中和的低碳發(fā)展政策體系 25 一、我國(guó)低碳發(fā)展政策體系的歷史演進(jìn) 25 二、我國(guó)低碳發(fā)展政策體系存在的主要問(wèn)題及形勢(shì)判斷 38 三、碳中和目標(biāo)下完善我國(guó)低碳發(fā)展政策體系的建議 40 第三章 建立健全綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系 47 一、21世紀(jì)以來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的戰(zhàn)略取向 47 二、綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型與碳中和目標(biāo) 51 三、推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系向綠色低碳循環(huán)發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型的對(duì)策建議 59 第四章 有序退煤的路線圖及重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域?qū)Σ?68 一、退煤對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰與碳中和目標(biāo)的重要意義 68 二、電力部門有序降低煤電比例的挑戰(zhàn)及對(duì)策 70 三、我國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)有序退煤的挑戰(zhàn)與政策 74 四、工業(yè)與民用散煤的退出 80 五、中國(guó)海外煤電投資面臨的問(wèn)題與建議 83 第五章 交通運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域碳達(dá)峰與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型 90 一、 交通運(yùn)輸?shù)吞及l(fā)展現(xiàn)狀 90 二、交通運(yùn)輸?shù)吞及l(fā)展面臨的問(wèn)題和挑戰(zhàn) 98 三、交通運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域碳達(dá)峰情景分析 102 四、交通運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的政策建議 113 第六章 面向碳中和目標(biāo)的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑 120 一、我國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放現(xiàn)狀及構(gòu)成 120 二、我國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)施節(jié)能減排的進(jìn)展 126 三、國(guó)外汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)低碳發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略與實(shí)踐 131 四、我國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和的總體思路 138 五、推動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和的對(duì)策建議 139 第七章 推動(dòng)基于自然的解決方案 145 一、基于自然的解決方案的內(nèi)涵和邊界 145 二、NbS與應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化 148 三、NbS在我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化領(lǐng)域的政策進(jìn)展 157 四、NbS貢獻(xiàn)碳中和目標(biāo)的對(duì)策建議 167 第八章 完善我國(guó)適應(yīng)氣候變化的治理體系 173 一、當(dāng)前及未來(lái)全球氣候適應(yīng)治理的焦點(diǎn)分析 173 二、氣候適應(yīng)治理的國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)與啟示 176 三、我國(guó)氣候適應(yīng)治理的現(xiàn)狀、不足與機(jī)遇 181 四、完善我國(guó)氣候適應(yīng)治理體系的對(duì)策建議 186 第九章 加快建設(shè)氣候投融資體系 190 一、氣候投融資對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化目標(biāo)的重要性 190 二、我國(guó)氣候投融資體系的現(xiàn)狀分析 195 三、新氣候變化目標(biāo)下我國(guó)氣候投融資面臨的問(wèn)題 203 四、加快建設(shè)我國(guó)氣候投融資體系的對(duì)策建議 206 第十章 新形勢(shì)下的綠色復(fù)蘇與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型國(guó)際合作 213 一、國(guó)際格局和全球治理體系的變革 213 二、綠色復(fù)蘇與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型國(guó)際合作的新形勢(shì) 217 三、重點(diǎn)國(guó)家和地區(qū)綠色低碳合作的現(xiàn)狀和趨勢(shì) 220 四、推動(dòng)綠色復(fù)蘇與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型國(guó)際合作的思路和對(duì)策 231 第二部分 方法、影響和比較分 第十一章 實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和目標(biāo)的能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和排放影響 237 一、研究方法 238 二、模擬結(jié)果 241 三、主要發(fā)現(xiàn)和建議 268 第十二章 中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰與碳中和等相關(guān)指標(biāo)的國(guó)際比較分析 273 一、碳達(dá)峰與碳中和目標(biāo)提出的國(guó)際背景 273 二、中國(guó)碳達(dá)峰與碳中和目標(biāo)的可能實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑 276 三、中國(guó)碳達(dá)峰與碳中和等相關(guān)指標(biāo)的世界地位 278 四、中國(guó)能源消費(fèi)相關(guān)指標(biāo)國(guó)際比較 288 五、中國(guó)CO2排放相關(guān)指標(biāo)國(guó)際比較 297 六、中國(guó)溫室氣體排放相關(guān)指標(biāo)國(guó)際比較 309 七、中國(guó)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型演化階段國(guó)際比較 315 CONTENS Strengthen Science and Technology to Provide Strategic Support for China′s Development i Preface xi Abbreviations and Acronyms xv Executive Summary xxi Part One.Exploring Pathways towards Carbon Neutrality Chapter 1 Carbon Neutrality-oriented Approach to Mid-and Long-Term Low-Carbon Transition 3 1. Background of New Climate Goals 3 2. Opportunities and Challenges for Achieving Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality 11 3. General Approach of Mid- and Long-term Green and Low-carbon Transition 17 Chapter 2 Building a Policy System of Low-Carbon Development towards Carbon Neutrality 25 1. Historical Evolution of Low-carbon Development Policy System 25 2. Main Problems and Assessment of Low-carbon Development Policy System 38 3. Recommendations on Improving Low-carbon Development Policy System for Carbon Neutrality 40 Chapter 3 Enhancing an Economic System of Green，Low-carbon and Circular Economy Development 47 1. Strategic Orientation of Economic Transition in New Century 47 2. Transition of Economic System towards Green，Low-Carbon and Circular Economy Development for Carbon Neutrality 51 3. Recommendations on Enhancing Economic Transition with Green，Low-Carbon and Circular Economy Development 59 Chapter 4 Roadmap of Phasing out Coal orderly and Countermeasures in Key Areas 68 1. Signi.cance of Coal Phase-out for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality 68 2. Challenges of Phasing out Coal orderly and Countermeasures in Power Sector 70 3. Challenges and Countermeasures of Phasing out Coal orderly in Steel Sector 74 4. Coal Phase-out in Industrial and Civil Areas 80 5. Problems of China′s Overseas Coal Power Investment and Suggestions 83 Chapter 5 Carbon Emissions Peak and Low-carbon Transition in Transportation Sector 90 1. Current Status of Low-carbon Development in Transportation Sector 90 2. Key Problems and Challenges of Low-Carbon Development in Transportation Sector 98 3. Scenario Analysis of Peaking Carbon Emissions in Transportation Sector 102 4. Recommendations on Low-carbon Transition in Transportation Sector 113 Chapter 6 Roadmap of Automobile Industry towards Carbon Neutrality 120 1. Current Status and Composition of Carbon Emissions in Automobile Industry 120 2. Recent Progress of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Automobile Industry 126 3. Low-carbon Development Strategies and Practices of Foreign Auto Industry 131 4. General Approach to Carbon Neutrality in Automobile Industry 138 5. Suggestions to Promote Carbon Neutrality in Automobile Industry 139 Chapter 7 Promote the Nature-based Solutions 145 1. Connotation and Boundary 145 2. NbS and Combating Climate Change 148 3. Policy Progress of NbS in Addressing Climate Change 157 4. Recommendations on Employing NbS for Carbon Neutrality 167 Chapter 8 Improving the Governance of Climate Adaptation 173 1. Focus Analysis of Improvement of Global Climate Adaptation Governance 173 2. International Experience and Enlightenment of Climate Adaptation Governance 176 3. Status，Gaps and Opportunities on Climate Adaptation Governance 181 4. Suggestions to Improve Climate Adaptation Governance in China 186 Chapter 9 Accelerating the Development of Climate Investment and Financing Syste
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